Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Iraq: A Link

As I previously mentioned reports from Iraq are so confusing that any attempt to evaluate the surge is supremely frustrating. This account from Obsidian Wings is the best I have seen so far. It gives a straightforward, objective account with no apparent axe to grind, by an apparently military writer. He even gives reasonable criteria to measure success. And quite correctly comments that in counter-insurgency, the military one factor and not necessarily the dominant one.

In any event, I believe the real measure of General Petraeus' success will come in October/November when Ramadan begins. Violence has always peaked during Ramadan so far. If it is significantly lower than in previous years, we will know that the surge is working. If it peaks as usual, we will know that the current lull is the the summertime slump.



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